Strategies & Nowcast
The seven strategies that power Traderwise signals
Detailed reference for the seven Nowcast strategies that generate Traderwise signals. Trend, mean-reversion, breakout, news-reaction, cross-asset, session-bias, and volatility regime — when each fires and how to read them.
The Nowcast engine is Traderwise's strategy framework. Seven strategies run in parallel against live market data; a signal is only surfaced when three or more agree on direction. This page is the operator's guide to what each strategy does and when it fires.
1. Trend-following
Looks for sustained directional momentum across multiple timeframes (15m, 1h, 4h). Fires when faster timeframes confirm the slower trend without divergence. Best in markets that are clearly trending — FX majors after central bank shifts, equity indices in earnings season.
2. Mean-reversion
Targets short-horizon pullbacks within an established trend, not counter-trend bets. Looks for oversold/overbought readings on RSI against a trend filter. Only fires on the side of the dominant trend.
3. Breakout
Detects volatility expansion past prior structural highs/lows. Combines ATR expansion with volume confirmation where available. Tends to fire around economic releases and session opens.
4. News-reaction
Models the post-event drift after high-impact scheduled releases (NFP, CPI, central bank decisions). The model expects the second move, not the initial spike — typically 30–90 minutes after release.
5. Cross-asset confirmation
A move on one instrument is validated by a correlated market. Example: a GBP strength signal is only confirmed if EURGBP and GBPUSD agree. Reduces false signals in low-liquidity sessions.
6. Session-bias
Repeatable intraday patterns by trading session — London open ramp, NY lunchtime drift, Tokyo range. Fires only during the relevant session window.
7. Volatility regime
Doesn't generate direction. Instead, it adjusts suggested position size based on current ATR vs the 20-day average. In high-vol regimes, sizes shrink; in low-vol, they grow within a capped range.
How they combine
A signal needs three of seven strategies agreeing on direction before it is surfaced. The confidence score is the count of agreeing strategies, weighted by their recent hit rates.
You can filter signals on the Signals page by which strategy generated them. This is useful if you want to study one strategy in isolation — for example, taking only breakout signals for a week and journaling the outcomes.
Strategy hit rates
Hit rates are visible on the Edge Card and update daily. None of the strategies are profitable in every market regime. The point of running seven in parallel is that the agreement itself is the signal, not any one strategy's prediction.